EUR/USD: Weekly outlook
EUR/USD: moving towards challenging values from the beginning of July 2022
The EUR/USD pair held its value last week and then faced aggressive buying following the release of the US Federal Reserve report on Wednesday.
EUR/USD will start this week trading around 1.03850, after a few great days of trading. Early on Monday last week, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the 1.02250 level, but managed to find important support and then started to gradually rise. On Wednesday, November 23, EUR/USD was cautiously crossing the 1.02950 support level, when sudden buying action hit the forex.
At its peak last Thursday, the EUR/USD pair challenged the 1.04500 level but failed to break it. Increased buying in EUR/USD was focused on the US Federal Reserve report, which indicated that the US central bank is likely to start showing signs of a looser interest rate policy. Possible expectations of higher interest rates in a more lenient manner contributed to the “positive” mood in the behavior of financial houses, which believed that a more “lenient” policy was likely in the medium term.
EUR/USD should be watched once interesting technical support is established
Forming interesting technical support levels last week, and making more bullish gains even before the US Federal Reserve report, EUR/USD should be watched closely. Basically, there is still plenty of reason to be suspicious of the euro, but there is a possibility that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates even more than the US central bank is doing now.
While betting on the ECB can be a dangerous and foolish game, EUR/USD, from a technical point of view, also showed that bullish sentiment is developing in the pair. After giving speculators and financial houses the idea that we have now crossed parity, EUR/USD remains in the historically low range of its long-term values. Support levels should be watched near 1.02000 and this looks like solid technical depth unless a big surprise is revealed. The mark below 1.03000 is now a key level, and if it continues to hold, it could indicate an upward path in the near future.
Traders should note that full volumes will hit EUR/USD early this week, if EUR/USD holds its current price levels it could lead to more buying.
It will be a big week for US data, including GDP data on Wednesday and employment and earnings statistics on Friday. Due to current data and technical values, volatility may develop in EUR/USD, especially if it manages to maintain a higher price range.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.02800 to 1.05280
Support levels will prove very important on Monday and Tuesday. EUR/USD has not seen the full volume of trading since Wednesday last week. If current values continue to test the levels from early July 2022, bearish traders might consider getting aggressive. If EUR/USD moves down, However, it remains above 1.03000, so aspiring traders should be cautious and not overambitious. A move below 1.03000 could technically be a surprise, and if there are no major ‘news events’, this could be a good place to look for a reversal to the upside.
EUR/USD is still within the lower depths of the long-term price range. The bear trend has been long and difficult for traders trying to look for upside reversals. However, the recent price move since early November seems to have established a gradual uptrend, which really started to show signs of slowing in late September when EUR/USD bottomed around 0.95300. If EUR/USD manages to hold above 1.03500 early Monday and hold value, buyers may think there is more room to grow. A sustained move above 1.04000 could lead to more bullish sentiment in the near term. From a speculative betting perspective, it appears that EUR/USD could be useful as a buying opportunity with aggressive risk-taking tactics.
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