This is how money determines the Republican candidate for the US presidential election

It does not appear that former US President Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination in the upcoming US presidential election, especially with the party’s financiers announcing a desire to seek “better options” that could more likely win the race for White . The house, which is planned for 2024.

Trump announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections, a week after the mid-term elections (last November) failed to cause the expected “red wave”, leaving the Senate in the hands of the Democrats and the House of Representatives barely under the control of the Republican Party.

Trump’s decision to run comes despite accusations that Republican candidates he supports are underperforming in Senate and House races, leading Republican strategist Jim Dornan to believe “the GOP should not nominate Trump for president.”

“better options”

Dornan told Al-Sharq that after Trump won the 2016 presidential election, he was easily nominated by the Republican Party in 2020, but in the current situation, it can be said that there are “better options”.

GOP donors view options like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin as more “sensible” candidates with a better chance of winning the upcoming presidential election.

Indeed, New York businessman Andy Sabin has announced that he will support DeSantis if he decides to run.

Sabin, owner of the world’s largest private precious metals refiner, Sabin Metal Corporation, previously donated to Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign.

After Trump failed to win the presidential election, Sabin said, “I won’t give him a new nickel” (a nickel equals 5 pennies and a dollar equals 20 nickels).

At the same time, he didn’t give up on donating to the Republican Party in the recent midterm elections, as Sabin paid $55,000 to DeSantis’ re-election bid for Florida governor.

The CEO of Citadel, a political campaign investment firm, Ken Griffin, announced his support for DeSantis in the upcoming presidential election, after DeSantis gave him $5 million in support in the last midterm elections, up from about $100 million he gave to Republicans in this election race.

Griffin justified this to Politico, saying he wanted to improve the diversity of the Republican Party and reduce the populist tendency that has complicated the party’s relationship with the corporate world. He also said there are “a number of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation”.

Money rules

Money has enormous influence on both the Republican and Democratic parties at all federal election levels, from the House of Representatives to the Senate to the presidency. About this, Dornan says that “the size and amount of money controls the choice of the candidate and his victory in many cases.”

And he believed that “big donors are choosing a candidate based on his acceptance and self-interest,” given that they “have begun to declare their reluctance to support Trump in 2024 because he no longer has a right to win or even to realize his gains.” He continued: “That tells me right away that he’s going to face problems in winning.” nomination within the party itself.

Professor of social sciences at Boston University Thomas Whalen agrees with strategic analyst Dornan in the great influence of money on the course of the electoral process. Wallen told Al Sharq that big donors, who pay the biggest sums in elections, control everything in the election process, starting with the selection of presidential candidates, the choice of their election program and the messages they adopt, and even the final results.

Wallen added: “This system is not related to American democracy as established by Thomas Jefferson, but is closer to minority rule.”

an exceptional case

But the influence of money does not apply to Trump’s case, according to Paul Beck, professor of political science and member of the Academy emeritus at Ohio University, justifying this by his position in relation to the Republican base at the moment.

Beck added to “Al Sharq” that “whoever wins the Republican nomination mainly depends on the preferences of Republican voters in the primaries and several party conferences”, stressing that “money is not particularly important for Trump, but it can be important for him to his competitors, at least how would support the increase of their visibility and prestige among voters.

controversial actions

Away from money, Trump faces a number of issues that Dornan believes are preventing him from gaining party support for his bid for the presidency, noting that “his continued insistence on lying about the 2020 election has alienated many voters from him, especially traditional Republicans.” .

Dornan’s belief is supported by a January 2019 NBC News poll that found 51 percent of Republicans viewed Trump supporters more than the party. By midterm election day in 2022, that percentage had dropped to 30 percent.

Dornan thinks it’s “quite reasonable that Trump’s share of supporters is now down even more, especially after his recent dinner with a white nationalist known for his crises,” referring to Nick Fuentes, a white supremacist described by the Anti-Defamation League as “a white supremacist and anti-Semitic”.

Dornan added: “I think Republican voters are tired of his actions and will move on to other, better-chosen candidates.”

Just after that dinner, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced on November 29 that the Republican Party “will not nominate Trump for the presidential race,” citing that “there is no place in the Republican Party for anti-Semitism or white supremacy.” He said: “Anyone who meets people who share this point of view, in my opinion, is unlikely to be elected president of the United States.”

On the contrary, Beck believes that Trump has “an opportunity that may be simple, but still exists, given the support of many Republican voters.” Beck expressed his belief that “if many of the former president’s opponents join the race within the Republican Party, this division will provide an opportunity for Trump to win the 2024 election, as happened in 2016.”

The same is supported by Whalen, who believes that the Republican Party can still nominate Trump for president, noting that he “maintains a quasi-sectarian base of supporters that other potential candidates like Ron DeSantis will have a hard time breaking.”

Candidacy as an independent

At the same time, Wallen warns that Trump could consider running for president as an independent candidate or as a third-party representative if Trump loses the nomination from the Republican Party, which would eliminate the Republican Party’s chances. in the 2024 elections.”

Hours before the start of the midterm elections, Trump issued a warning to Florida Governor DeSantis to run for president, saying it (the latter’s candidacy) would harm the Republican Party. He threatened to reveal information that “wouldn’t be very good” and said: “I know more about him than anyone else, except maybe his wife who runs his election campaign.”

potential candidates

However, DeSantis is the Republican Party’s top potential candidate for the 2024 presidential election, but Dornan confirms that there are some other names being mentioned within the Republican Party as potential presidential candidates, including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and New Jersey Gov. Former Vice President Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence.

In the context of clarifying the many names of potential presidential candidates from among the ranks of the Republican Party, Beck believes that “the businessmen and donors did not agree and did not stand behind any specific candidate at this time, not even behind Trump.” He concludes: “They seem concerned that Trump won’t be able to win the general election, but will keep him on the sidelines until a viable challenger emerges.”

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