Lebanon.. Does the murder of an Irish soldier open a door that is hard to close?

(quiet stretch)

Jordan sought to avoid the noise as it prepared for a regional summit in Amman on Tuesday this week. Preparations were as quiet as possible and in very intensive coordination with France for what everyone wanted to call Baghdad Dialogues 2, connecting the meetings scheduled to be held at the Dead Sea with the Baghdad Dialogues that were held in the capital of Iraq at the end of August last year.

What is new about the upcoming summit is that it will include two new members, Bahrain and Oman, along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and of course Iraq and France.

Some sources have confirmed that an official invitation has been sent to Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi to attend the summit. The same sources also did not confirm any response that would prove the personal presence of Raisi, but Iran will be present and represented in the “Omani” Baghdad dialogues on the shores of the Dead Sea and a few kilometers away from the opposite coast of Israel.

While the Jordanian Prime Minister left for Saudi Arabia at the head of a large Jordanian delegation, he replied that the visit had nothing to do with the coordination of the summit, without any “obligatory” clarifications or explanations for the “surprise”. ” visit coinciding with popular protests in the south bordering Saudi Arabia!

In the absence of “transparent” information from the government, the presidential visit to Saudi Arabia was said to have brought agreements on the inter-transportation sector between the two countries.

The Jordanian move was early for the summit, which Jordan does not like to call a summit in order to control the quality of security around and within it, and also to reduce any regional sensitivities. A long time that followed the high “regional” flight that Jordan made in the summer of 2021, and the highlight was the visit of the King of Jordan to Washington, in which he conveyed important regional messages, and also in coordination with the French President Macron and what seemed as the mandate of the leaders of countries in the regional neighborhood, that escape was followed by a decline. Surprisingly, Jordan’s regional role coincided with the renewed presence of the Netanyahu government on the political scene, a presence that Jordan seized, and the apprehension came true.

At the beginning of December, parallel to the sudden activity of Jordanian regional political activity, King Abdullah II visited Algeria “after Egypt”, then the royal plane landed in Rome-Italy.

The surprise visit to Algeria and then Italy was also coordinated with France as well as Spain, and it is an amazing visit, so to speak, after the last visit which was 14 years ago and the previous Jordanian position in favor of Algeria in the matter of Western Sahara!

According to the sources, the visit was related to energy and the export of Algerian gas to France and Spain, in coordination with Italy, which has taken Algerian leadership and favor in the management of Algerian gas projects.

Of course, the logical question arises: What will Jordan achieve with this move? I did not find the answer despite the insistence of the question in the capital, which is full of questions and scarce answers, but there is no doubt that there is a Jordanian interest in all this.

Today, Oman announces its conference in the context of security news confirming that the road from the airport to the Dead Sea is secured by military vehicles, a statement replete with all the security warning signs imposed by the violent incidents that accompanied the “legitimate” protests in the transport sector, which escalated due to the accumulation of government failure in early solutions, and created an atmosphere fertile for regional infiltration by opponents who are waiting for any “regional” progress by Jordan, and local passes are also sought by the Islamic opposition. role again.

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(sudden interception of silent expansion)

Since the local readings were fundamentally wrong, the objections were surprising but natural, and in their context, for those who read the Jordanian local scene with the logic of social and economic calculations that are not divorced from the reality of the Jordanian street.

The idea of ​​a political reform system, which the king led with “extreme personal passion”, was today subjected to a violent earthquake that resets all accounts to zero, in the face of protests in the transport and logistics sector, which has expanded to express the state of severe popular congestion that is reflected a lack of confidence in all the current “methodology” in managing the country. .

The protests that finally erupted could be predicted in the way of the political administration of the local scene, which is a scene that cannot be completely separated from the Jordanian regional context either, and the protests simmered under the surface waiting for the moment when things reached what was not could tolerate on the stormy Jordanian street. And multiple currents and many deplorable poverty and unemployment, in exchange for noticeable “financial” luxury in the pockets of capital that is constantly swelling to the point of provocation.

And we indicated in the early stages a year ago, and in the midst of the Jordanian “elitist” debate about the system of reform and modernization, that what is needed is the restoration of the state in its institutional capacity within the legal system and under the constitution, the state in its functional sense without all those unconstitutional excesses that divide the mandate, governance, decision-making and even the distribution of wealth and resources, so that we have ended up with many institutions that have power, with a serious lack of any oppositional institution, even with a minimal level of oversight and accountability.

(We described the idea in detail in the previous article, “The Chariot and the Horse”. The seriousness and luxury of the idea of ​​decorating the democratic chariot with ornaments and decorations, while the state – which is the horse “behind the chariot” – is thin and tired.)

The situation was complicated by the accumulation in Jordan, by deepening the idea of ​​the clan institution as an idea of ​​traditional Bedouinism, and by taking it out of the social context into political-security employment, and through the horizontal division of society which assumes that legal citizenship is what unites it. However, the social and political reality in Jordan presents you with a clear division. For all its absurdity and flatness, for example, in the two sports clubs, Al-Wehdat and Al-Faisaly, and instead of civil development projects that previously aimed to settle Bedouin communities in urban communities, the matter turned to using Bedouinism, tribes and clans as the first defense against any civil claims, so we end seasonally with elections that can be free to vote. Al-Hurr, but was installed by deceiving the public consciousness and directing it indirectly to the “clan consensus candidate”, who usually seeks a green light, however boring, from the authorities to ensure that he reaches the House of Representatives as a legislator.

On the other hand, the green light (apparently very strong) was given to businessmen who came to the political scene and newcomers who profited and joined forces out of pure expediency in their affairs with “spiritual” elites, and the institution of the clan was replaced by the institution of “political money” and turned from entrepreneurs and traders into law makers in the Parliament.

And between the two countries, the Islamic current that used clan and political money together in its electoral struggles was present to fill the vast areas in the void of social consciousness, so we ended up with a parliament that was reproduced 10 years ago with tribal sheikhs and businessmen with the mentality of bag traders and Islamists led by the Muslim Brotherhood with a social program that managed to reach society To a state of social schizophrenia between its original local culture and the hybrid culture that once came from the desert and Sayyida Qutb wrote on the other.

Well, here we are today in front of the institution of the clan, and it proves its “balanced” and rational presence in front of the head of state himself, in a dangerous situation that collapsed after the murder of a Jordanian security officer with a bullet in the head outside the context of all those protests, an officer with the rank of colonel who has an academic doctorate and is socially embraced In life and after death, a clan institution.

An institution whose “wise men” met, including those who were in the position of “statesmen” to send a message to the government that it is an opponent, not a ruler, refusing to accept sympathy from any state body, and at the same time, this institution through its ” sage” stressed that one should be careful and not take advantage of the situation. Very angry” at the violation of social security, and the certainty that an educated and moral official “may God have mercy on him” does his duty of preservation, and the clan institution, “represented by its wise men who have been marginalized by the elites of capital”, has taken over the idea of ​​the state and its of “external and internal” targeting and emphasized its cohesion around the institution of the throne, and said this in the presence of the one who sits on the throne, the head of state himself, and sends a dangerous message “at least twice in the videos that were broadcast from the funeral home” to the entire current political the reform movement is not capable of achieving its goals without rebuilding the state and its institutions.

The clan cannot replace the state, the clan elders themselves say so, but they demand that the state be in its “constitutional and institutional” place.

Perhaps the words of academic Dr. Nizar Qubilat – who is also from the tribe – stopped me in my tracks in a short, profound and comprehensive commentary he wrote, saying: “…Recently, the clan has become wiser and more patient than the political elites. and governments, and it has become a proof of failure. Our failure to achieve the demands of sovereignty, justice and development.” !

It promises a start..

Jordan’s regional role is necessary for the life of the Jordanian state, but it is not correct without internal support where Jordanians feel the seriousness of the Sans and Istbhh reform in all its daily details.